Tech Index February 19 2010

The Battle Road Tech Index™ rose 3.1 percent for the week ended February 19, 2010, closing at 1633. For the week, 21 of the 25 Index components rose in value. Year-to-date, the index is down 2.8 percent, having started at a value of 1680.

Western Digital (WDC), Adobe Systems (ADBE), eBay (EBAY), and Dell (DELL) were notable movers for the week:

Shares of Western Digital (NYSE: WDC, $43.15) rose 8.3 percent over the past week. Though the March quarter is typically down from the December quarter for unit hard-drive shipments, and the June quarter tends to be down from March, PC demand has continued to improve as evidenced by earnings reports from Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL). This could improve unit shipments for the first and second quarters of 2010, leading to full industry capacity and stable pricing. Though necessary capacity additions loom on the horizon, and too much capacity at any point in the value chain would be a negative for the industry, initial estimates of CapEx spending seem to indicate responsible plans and should lead to positive supply/demand trends.

Adobe Systems’ (NASDAQ: ADBE, $33.88), shares rose by 7.7 percent, amid hopes that a new verrsion of its Flash technology, optimized for smartphones, will give it a much needed lift in that arena. So far, Adobe has enlisted the support of Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), who have said that their mobile related products will support Adobe. Still missing in action is Apple, whose iPhone and forthcoming iPad do not support Adobe’s Flash technology as the preferred medium for running graphics and animation.

eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY, $23.42) rose 7.6 percent this week. The company took a hit last week after an unfavorable ruling in a Parisian court further reinforced a prohibition against selling genuine or fake Louis Vitton products. The stock bounced back this week as a result. Additionally there was good news from the company’s Payments division. On Thursday eBay announced that PayPal, the company’s flagship Payments product would be available for payment of ads and other products on Facebook. This agreement gives the Facebook users, of which there are now roughly 400 million, the ability to pay with PayPal. This increased acceptance of PayPal will improve what was already a strong growing segment.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL, $13.47) fell 2.9 percent for the week, notable since only four companies were in negative territory this week. The company reported earnings on Thursday, February 18. Revenues of $14.9 billion easily beat consensus of $13.8 billion, driven by strength in server, consumer PC, and EqualLogic storage sales. Though top line strength mimicked HP’s results the previous day, Dell continued to struggle on the gross margin line, which fell to 16.7 percent from 17.4 percent in the previous quarter and 18.8 percent in the prior year. Consumer mix dragged profitability, as did stubbornly high component costs. Though Dell will benefit from the highly-anticipated PC refresh, expected to hit in the back half of 2010, the company must still work on cost savings so that top line strength will filter through to the bottom line.

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